Dynamics of the areal of the field mouse (apodemus agrarius) in northern eurasia under global climate change in the XXI century

Scientists from the A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow) with colleagues from the University of Tennessee (USA) for the first time predicted the consequences of the impact of global climate change in the next 80 years on the dynamics of the range of invasive species using the example of the field mouse (Apodemus agrarius Pallas, 1771) in Russia. The species is widespread in Eurasia and common in many regions, damages agricultural crops and is a carrier of zoonotic pathogens that are dangerous to humans. Among them is hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, which is characterized by a high mortality rate in the Far East. Expansion of the species' range now and under future climate change may have negative impacts on the economy and public health. This study used an ensemble approach to generate robust models of the species' spatial distribution under current (1970–2000) and future climate conditions derived from sixth generation global climate change models (GMCM-6). To model the time-varying range of the field mouse, high-, moderate-, and low-sensitivity GMIC-6 were used under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). For the first time, it is shown that among the forty GMIC-6, there is a group of models that are more consistent with real field data for the period 1980–2020. For these models, moderate warming is expected over the next two decades of the 21st century, i.e. an increase in temperature (dT) for the periods 2021–2040 and 2041–2060 will be less than 2.0 °C (dT = 1.13 °C, dT = 1.89 °C, respectively) (Fig. 1). Warming for the period 2061–2080 may be 2.15 °C, but after CO2 emissions drop to zero (around 2075), the increase in average annual air temperature for the period 2081–2100 will increase to 1.93 °C.

Fig.1: Increase in average annual air temperature (T , °C) in Russia in the 21st century, where A are average values for all climate models (CM) for various climate change scenarios SSPx-y (SSP1-2.6 - low greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), in which CO2 emissions fall to zero around 2075, SSP2-4.5 - intermediate GHG emissions, in which CO2 emissions increase at approximately the current rate until 2050, and then decline, but do not reach zero by 2100), SSP3 -7.0 (high GHG emissions, with CO2 emissions doubling by 2100) and SSP5-8.5 (very high GHG emissions, with CO2 emissions tripling by 2075); B – increase in T when implementing highly sensitive CMs (Hsens), C – increase in T when implementing moderately sensitive CMs (Msens); D – increase in T when implementing low-sensitivity CMs (Lsens).

For each type of GMIC-6 and each of the four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), models of the geographical range of the field mouse were built for the periods 2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081 –2100 and the positions of the centroids of the area were determined. It has been established that range changes depend on both the sensitivity of GMIC and climate change scenarios. It is shown that in the future the range of the field mouse is expected to expand with a major shift to the northeast and partial loss of habitats in the modern steppe zone. In addition, the models show the merging of the western and eastern parts of the mouse range, isolated for 12 thousand years until the present, i.e. the formation of a continuous range of the field mouse is expected from Western Europe to East Asia (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: The range of the field mouse (Apodemus agrarius (Pallas, 1771)) in Russia under the current climate (A) and its predicted range by the end of 2100 for low-sensitivity climate models (Lsens) under different scenarios (SSPx- y) of climate change (B, C, D, D). The red arrows indicate the area of the current range gap, which existed for 12 thousand years. By the end of the 21st century, the merger of the western and eastern parts of the range and the implementation of low-sensitivity CM (Lsens) are expected.

It is important to note that warming in the 20th century by 0.78 °C has already led to a shift in the range of many species (about 1,700 species from different taxa are documented) to the north at a rate of 6.1 km per decade, while warming in the 21st century by 2 °C will lead to a shift in the centroid of the species' range to the north at a rate of 32 to 36 km per decade.

In general, the research carried out and the prediction of the spread of the field mouse under conditions of climate change can help to take timely measures to limit the invasion of the species and the possibility of introducing infectious diseases into new regions of Russia. At the moment, there are over 40 different climate change models in the world and 4 scenarios for each of them (i.e. 160 model implementations), which often give inaccurate predictions, and their data are published in highly rated scientific publications and are the basis for making decisions on measures combating global climate change in many countries. In this regard, comprehensive work was carried out to select the most realistic models of climate change in the 21st century to correctly assess its impact on the process of biological invasions of dangerous species at the global level and on Russian ecosystems.

The research was carried out with the support of the Russian Science Foundation (project No. 21-14-00123). The results were published in the international journal Biology (JCR IF 4.2; Q1-General Agricultural and Biological Sciences)

Petrosyan, V.; Dinets, V.; Osipov, F.; Dergunova, N.; Khlyap, L. Range Dynamics of Striped Field Mouse (Apodemus agrarius) in Northern Eurasia under Global Climate Change Based on Ensemble Species Distribution Models. Biology 2023, 12, 1034. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology12071034

Materials on the topic in the media:

Press service of the Russian Science Foundation: "Climate warming will help harmful
rodents expand their range almost twice"

Press Service of the Russian Academy of Sciences: “Climate warming will help harmful
rodents expand their range almost twice”

GAZETA.RU: “It has been established how the habitat of field mice in Russia will increase
due to global warming”

Vedomosti: "Global warming will lead to a large-scale spread of the field mouse"

Snob: "Research: Global warming will lead to the spread of the field mouse"

Sirius Magazine: "Nightmare for farmers: global warming will trigger mouse expansion"

TASS Science: "The range of rodent pests may expand by 80% due to climate change"

Internet portal "Rossiyskaya Gazeta": "Scientists have found that by the end of the century
the range of the field mouse will increase by 80 percent"

Russian popular science publication Naked Science: “Climate warming will help harmful
rodents almost double their range”

Online publication "Pravda.Ru": "Due to global warming, there is a threat of the spread of the
field mouse"

Neva.Today: “Global warming threatens a large-scale spread of harmful rodents”